Wednesday, 3 February 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (15, 23, 30, 31) with the draw of 2 June 2015 — its closest relative in 2,118 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 58% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 February 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 124 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 30–31. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.