Sunday, 5 August 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (9, 12, 14, 36) with the draw of 20 July 2018 — its closest relative in 3,029 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 71% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 August 2018): 9 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 81 — the 30th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

36 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.