Tuesday, 19 January 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 25, 26, 29) with the draw of 15 June 2020 — its closest relative in 3,927 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 January 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 112 — the 80th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 25–26. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.