Wednesday, 14 September 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 10, 21, 32) with the draw of 9 November 2016 — its closest relative in 4,530 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 September 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 72 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. No two numbers side by side. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.