Sunday, 17 December 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (9, 18, 27, 29) with the draw of 15 May 2019 — its closest relative in 4,989 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 87% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 December 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 116 — the 85th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. No two numbers side by side. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.