Monday, 11 February 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 10, 32, 33) with the draw of 17 October 2011 — its closest relative in 445 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 38% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 February 2013): 5 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 109 — the 12th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10, 32–33. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 31% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.