Saturday, 30 April 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (20, 21, 44, 48) with the draw of 25 May 2013 — its closest relative in 948 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 64% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 April 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 161 — the 66th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 20–21. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

44 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 40% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.