Saturday, 17 December 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 4 numbers (15, 18) with the draw of 25 July 2011 — its closest relative in 265 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 December 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 20% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 95 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 156. No two numbers side by side. 15% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 62 draws. A number waits about 19 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.