Saturday, 31 December 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 4 numbers (12, 64) with the draw of 15 August 2011 — its closest relative in 271 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 December 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 20% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 172 — the 63th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 156. No two numbers side by side. 15% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 46 draws. A number waits about 19 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.