Saturday, 28 November 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (17, 24, 25) with the draw of 18 October 2014 — its closest relative in 2,053 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 November 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 107 — the 45th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18, 23–24, 24–25. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 41 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.