Tuesday, 9 February 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (5, 6, 28) with the draw of 19 September 2015 — its closest relative in 2,126 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 February 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 89 — the 21th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 5–6. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

6 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.