Wednesday, 21 November 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 25, 26) with the draw of 18 January 2017 — its closest relative in 3,138 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 November 2018): 3 carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 85 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3, 25–26. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.