Thursday, 27 February 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (2, 20, 21, 25) with the draw of 11 October 2012 — its closest relative in 235 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 21% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 February 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 130 — the 27th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 20–21. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 33% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.