Thursday, 16 August 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (14, 15, 25, 27) with the draw of 29 June 2012 — its closest relative in 854 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 53% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 August 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 99 — the 87th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 14–15. 54% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.