Thursday, 7 May 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (21, 24, 28, 29) with the draw of 11 April 2011 — its closest relative in 1,846 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 May 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 28–29. 54% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.