Thursday, 17 November 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (5, 21, 25, 26) with the draw of 7 January 2014 — its closest relative in 2,406 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 88% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 November 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 90 — the 74th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 25–26. 54% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

13 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.