Sunday, 18 December 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (9, 12, 13, 23) with the draw of 4 June 2015 — its closest relative in 2,437 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 88% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 December 2016): 14, 23 carried over. Chance says 63% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 71 — the 35th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13, 13–14. 54% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.