Monday, 15 May 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 9, 12) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 12 May 2023 — its closest relative in 160 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 May 2023): 6, 9, 12 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 0 repeated (9% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 78 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. No two numbers side by side. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.0× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.