Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (9, 10, 15) with the draw of 22 March 2011 — its closest relative in 197 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 July 2011): 3 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 48 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10, 10–11. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.