Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 4, 25, 32) with the draw of 28 April 2011 — its closest relative in 598 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 24% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 February 2014): 5 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 68 — the 15th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.