Tuesday, 3 November 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (19, 25, 30) with the draw of 25 August 2015 — its closest relative in 871 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 October 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 113 — the 85th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 30–31. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.