Saturday, 21 July 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 13, 21) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 3 February 2018 — its closest relative in 262 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 July 2018): 4 carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (3% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 61 — the 6th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.