Sunday, 22 August 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 20, 31) with the draw of 29 May 2021 — its closest relative in 976 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 August 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 53% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 105 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 98. No two numbers side by side. 45% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 30 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.