Saturday, 19 May 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (18, 20, 28) with the draw of 25 September 2010 — its closest relative in 221 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 95% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 May 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 97 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19, 19–20. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.