Saturday, 1 August 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (22, 25, 28, 29) with the draw of 4 March 2015 — its closest relative in 555 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 23% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 July 2015): 29 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 130 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 25–26, 28–29. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.