Saturday, 5 February 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (3, 21, 46) with the draw of 29 September 2010 — its closest relative in 114 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 80% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 February 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 171 — the 56th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 165. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 48–49. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

48 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 63% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.