Monday, 8 August 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 4 numbers (4, 25, 31) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 August 2010 — its closest relative in 166 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 33% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 August 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (3% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 92 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 72. Side-by-side numbers: 31–32. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.