Wednesday, 1 October 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 27, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 9 July 2011 — its closest relative in 467 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 September 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 115 — the 64th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 26–27. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.