Wednesday, 24 August 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 13, 21, 40) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 15 May 2019 — its closest relative in 1,291 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 27% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 August 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 119 — the 70th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 39–40. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.