Saturday, 13 August 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (8, 9, 20, 47) with the draw of 19 November 2011 — its closest relative in 663 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 48% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 August 2016): 8, 20 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 160 — the 61th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 31 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 45% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.