Wednesday, 11 August 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (19, 20, 27) with the draw of 9 December 2020 — its closest relative in 1,184 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 August 2021): 7, 19 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 98 — the 6th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 3.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 14% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.