Thursday, 11 September 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (3, 8, 17, 31) with the draw of 22 September 2013 — its closest relative in 1,609 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 September 2014): 17 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 102 — the 24th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. No two numbers side by side. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

38 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.