Saturday, 29 November 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (1, 30, 31, 36) with the draw of 3 October 2012 — its closest relative in 1,688 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 November 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 134 — the 70th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30, 30–31. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

29 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.