Monday, 28 June 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (18, 19, 21, 38) with the draw of 7 April 2018 — its closest relative in 4,086 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 June 2021): 19, 21 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 139 — the 76th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.