Saturday, 23 July 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (1, 8, 12, 24, 38) with the draw of 15 May 2016 — its closest relative in 4,476 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 24% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 July 2022): 1 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 99 — the 21th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. No two numbers side by side. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.