Wednesday, 29 November 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (1, 9, 17, 29) with the draw of 27 August 2023 — its closest relative in 4,970 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 November 2023): 17 carried over. Chance says 66% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 94 — the 16th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10, 28–29. 59% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.