Monday, 31 January 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (1, 11, 13, 24) with the draw of 23 November 2010 — its closest relative in 170 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 93% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 January 2011): 11, 13, 23 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 79 — the 51th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.