Tuesday, 26 April 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (10, 16, 18, 23) with the draw of 25 April 2011 — its closest relative in 219 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 April 2011): 10, 16, 18, 23 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 92 — the 80th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. No two numbers side by side. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.