Monday, 22 February 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (2, 8, 13, 14, 16) with the draw of 5 August 2013 — its closest relative in 1,226 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 55% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 February 2016): 2, 5, 8, 13 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 58 — the 10th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.