Thursday, 12 January 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (7, 11, 12, 17, 19) with the draw of 29 December 2011 — its closest relative in 1,412 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 60% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 January 2017): nothing carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 82 — the 59th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12, 16–17. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.