Friday, 17 November 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (9, 14, 16, 18) with the draw of 2 January 2017 — its closest relative in 1,588 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 November 2017): 18, 22 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 90 — the 76th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. No two numbers side by side. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.