Tuesday, 21 April 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (4, 10, 11, 15, 16) with the draw of 22 December 2017 — its closest relative in 2,094 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 April 2020): 4 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 73 — the 37th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11, 15–16, 16–17. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.