Tuesday, 12 October 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (6, 13, 14, 24, 25) with the draw of 16 October 2020 — its closest relative in 2,402 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 79% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 October 2021): 5 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 87 — the 70th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 5–6, 13–14, 24–25. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.