Friday, 5 May 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (6, 8, 9, 14, 19) with the draw of 22 July 2022 — its closest relative in 2,728 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 83% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 May 2023): 8, 19, 25 carried over. Chance says 85% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 81 — the 56th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 78. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9. 78% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 4 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.