Tuesday, 24 November 2009

Its nearest twin

Shares 1 of 5 numbers (42) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 20 November 2009 — its closest relative in 9 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 November 2009): 42 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (5% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 112 — the 45th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.