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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
LotteryOracle · F-43
Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?
Main drum: 6 of 48. Bonus balls are excluded.
Every machine here is simulated. No real lottery is being accused or predicted.
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48 | 50 |
| 2 | 45 | 50 |
| 3 | 48 | 50 |
| 4 | 41 | 50 |
| 5 | 53 | 50 |
| 6 | 60 | 50 |
| 7 | 41 | 50 |
| 8 | 52 | 50 |
| 9 | 54 | 50 |
| 10 | 43 | 50 |
| 11 | 53 | 50 |
| 12 | 44 | 50 |
| 13 | 41 | 50 |
| 14 | 51 | 50 |
| 15 | 41 | 50 |
| 16 | 40 | 50 |
| 17 | 38 | 50 |
| 18 | 44 | 50 |
| 19 | 52 | 50 |
| 20 | 43 | 50 |
| 21 | 52 | 50 |
| 22 | 69 | 50 |
| 23 | 51 | 50 |
| 24 | 68 | 50 |
| 25 | 61 | 50 |
| 26 | 46 | 50 |
| 27 | 55 | 50 |
| 28 | 54 | 50 |
| 29 | 50 | 50 |
| 30 | 50 | 50 |
| 31 | 56 | 50 |
| 32 | 55 | 50 |
| 33 | 54 | 50 |
| 34 | 59 | 50 |
| 35 | 44 | 50 |
| 36 | 50 | 50 |
| 37 | 44 | 50 |
| 38 | 61 | 50 |
| 39 | 58 | 50 |
| 40 | 48 | 50 |
| 41 | 50 | 50 |
| 42 | 51 | 50 |
| 43 | 43 | 50 |
| 44 | 47 | 50 |
| 45 | 41 | 50 |
| 46 | 48 | 50 |
| 47 | 48 | 50 |
| 48 | 55 | 50 |
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56 | 50 |
| 2 | 48 | 50 |
| 3 | 60 | 50 |
| 4 | 50 | 50 |
| 5 | 57 | 50 |
| 6 | 55 | 50 |
| 7 | 54 | 50 |
| 8 | 47 | 50 |
| 9 | 39 | 50 |
| 10 | 63 | 50 |
| 11 | 50 | 50 |
| 12 | 51 | 50 |
| 13 | 56 | 50 |
| 14 | 52 | 50 |
| 15 | 45 | 50 |
| 16 | 46 | 50 |
| 17 | 65 | 50 |
| 18 | 50 | 50 |
| 19 | 57 | 50 |
| 20 | 59 | 50 |
| 21 | 62 | 50 |
| 22 | 46 | 50 |
| 23 | 55 | 50 |
| 24 | 51 | 50 |
| 25 | 48 | 50 |
| 26 | 49 | 50 |
| 27 | 43 | 50 |
| 28 | 48 | 50 |
| 29 | 46 | 50 |
| 30 | 45 | 50 |
| 31 | 51 | 50 |
| 32 | 44 | 50 |
| 33 | 45 | 50 |
| 34 | 47 | 50 |
| 35 | 40 | 50 |
| 36 | 58 | 50 |
| 37 | 39 | 50 |
| 38 | 51 | 50 |
| 39 | 38 | 50 |
| 40 | 52 | 50 |
| 41 | 39 | 50 |
| 42 | 49 | 50 |
| 43 | 56 | 50 |
| 44 | 47 | 50 |
| 45 | 51 | 50 |
| 46 | 43 | 50 |
| 47 | 51 | 50 |
| 48 | 46 | 50 |
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 50 |
| 2 | 17 | 50 |
| 3 | 18 | 50 |
| 4 | 174 | 50 |
| 5 | 15 | 50 |
| 6 | 189 | 50 |
| 7 | 17 | 50 |
| 8 | 17 | 50 |
| 9 | 20 | 50 |
| 10 | 14 | 50 |
| 11 | 9 | 50 |
| 12 | 13 | 50 |
| 13 | 16 | 50 |
| 14 | 183 | 50 |
| 15 | 16 | 50 |
| 16 | 201 | 50 |
| 17 | 15 | 50 |
| 18 | 13 | 50 |
| 19 | 16 | 50 |
| 20 | 11 | 50 |
| 21 | 18 | 50 |
| 22 | 13 | 50 |
| 23 | 14 | 50 |
| 24 | 187 | 50 |
| 25 | 13 | 50 |
| 26 | 169 | 50 |
| 27 | 15 | 50 |
| 28 | 14 | 50 |
| 29 | 16 | 50 |
| 30 | 10 | 50 |
| 31 | 17 | 50 |
| 32 | 11 | 50 |
| 33 | 9 | 50 |
| 34 | 182 | 50 |
| 35 | 19 | 50 |
| 36 | 184 | 50 |
| 37 | 14 | 50 |
| 38 | 8 | 50 |
| 39 | 14 | 50 |
| 40 | 12 | 50 |
| 41 | 15 | 50 |
| 42 | 9 | 50 |
| 43 | 14 | 50 |
| 44 | 194 | 50 |
| 45 | 15 | 50 |
| 46 | 196 | 50 |
| 47 | 15 | 50 |
| 48 | 16 | 50 |
Make a judgment for all three machines before the reveal.
199 independent fair histories; 3 comparisons. · chance-detective-v1 · seed 3859451871
One fixed frequency statistic is tested per machine. Independent fair histories use the same sample size and draw format. Add-one Monte Carlo p-values are corrected across all three machines with Bonferroni. The sample is fixed before testing; a non-alert is not a certificate of fairness.
E = Dk/N; Q = Σ(O − E)²/E; p = (1 + #{Qnull ≥ Q})/(R + 1); padj = min(1, 3p)
Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?
Knowing the generator and detecting it from a short record are different things. A quiet test cannot certify fairness.