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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
LotteryOracle · F-43
Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?
Main drum: 7 of 40. Bonus balls are excluded.
Every machine here is simulated. No real lottery is being accused or predicted.
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 70 |
| 2 | 19 | 70 |
| 3 | 24 | 70 |
| 4 | 259 | 70 |
| 5 | 26 | 70 |
| 6 | 267 | 70 |
| 7 | 20 | 70 |
| 8 | 22 | 70 |
| 9 | 22 | 70 |
| 10 | 20 | 70 |
| 11 | 25 | 70 |
| 12 | 17 | 70 |
| 13 | 22 | 70 |
| 14 | 254 | 70 |
| 15 | 22 | 70 |
| 16 | 251 | 70 |
| 17 | 21 | 70 |
| 18 | 24 | 70 |
| 19 | 22 | 70 |
| 20 | 21 | 70 |
| 21 | 22 | 70 |
| 22 | 18 | 70 |
| 23 | 16 | 70 |
| 24 | 263 | 70 |
| 25 | 22 | 70 |
| 26 | 281 | 70 |
| 27 | 24 | 70 |
| 28 | 31 | 70 |
| 29 | 26 | 70 |
| 30 | 20 | 70 |
| 31 | 26 | 70 |
| 32 | 21 | 70 |
| 33 | 19 | 70 |
| 34 | 248 | 70 |
| 35 | 18 | 70 |
| 36 | 279 | 70 |
| 37 | 19 | 70 |
| 38 | 14 | 70 |
| 39 | 31 | 70 |
| 40 | 21 | 70 |
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69 | 70 |
| 2 | 73 | 70 |
| 3 | 60 | 70 |
| 4 | 60 | 70 |
| 5 | 77 | 70 |
| 6 | 72 | 70 |
| 7 | 75 | 70 |
| 8 | 90 | 70 |
| 9 | 68 | 70 |
| 10 | 73 | 70 |
| 11 | 60 | 70 |
| 12 | 75 | 70 |
| 13 | 77 | 70 |
| 14 | 63 | 70 |
| 15 | 76 | 70 |
| 16 | 71 | 70 |
| 17 | 69 | 70 |
| 18 | 67 | 70 |
| 19 | 76 | 70 |
| 20 | 75 | 70 |
| 21 | 70 | 70 |
| 22 | 64 | 70 |
| 23 | 61 | 70 |
| 24 | 78 | 70 |
| 25 | 52 | 70 |
| 26 | 67 | 70 |
| 27 | 65 | 70 |
| 28 | 72 | 70 |
| 29 | 81 | 70 |
| 30 | 76 | 70 |
| 31 | 69 | 70 |
| 32 | 77 | 70 |
| 33 | 57 | 70 |
| 34 | 60 | 70 |
| 35 | 78 | 70 |
| 36 | 70 | 70 |
| 37 | 78 | 70 |
| 38 | 66 | 70 |
| 39 | 63 | 70 |
| 40 | 70 | 70 |
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61 | 70 |
| 2 | 70 | 70 |
| 3 | 72 | 70 |
| 4 | 67 | 70 |
| 5 | 61 | 70 |
| 6 | 71 | 70 |
| 7 | 73 | 70 |
| 8 | 74 | 70 |
| 9 | 80 | 70 |
| 10 | 73 | 70 |
| 11 | 79 | 70 |
| 12 | 56 | 70 |
| 13 | 77 | 70 |
| 14 | 70 | 70 |
| 15 | 75 | 70 |
| 16 | 73 | 70 |
| 17 | 77 | 70 |
| 18 | 82 | 70 |
| 19 | 71 | 70 |
| 20 | 69 | 70 |
| 21 | 62 | 70 |
| 22 | 66 | 70 |
| 23 | 64 | 70 |
| 24 | 58 | 70 |
| 25 | 66 | 70 |
| 26 | 62 | 70 |
| 27 | 75 | 70 |
| 28 | 66 | 70 |
| 29 | 61 | 70 |
| 30 | 61 | 70 |
| 31 | 70 | 70 |
| 32 | 77 | 70 |
| 33 | 60 | 70 |
| 34 | 63 | 70 |
| 35 | 83 | 70 |
| 36 | 81 | 70 |
| 37 | 68 | 70 |
| 38 | 71 | 70 |
| 39 | 80 | 70 |
| 40 | 75 | 70 |
Make a judgment for all three machines before the reveal.
199 independent fair histories; 3 comparisons. · chance-detective-v1 · seed 2764193755
One fixed frequency statistic is tested per machine. Independent fair histories use the same sample size and draw format. Add-one Monte Carlo p-values are corrected across all three machines with Bonferroni. The sample is fixed before testing; a non-alert is not a certificate of fairness.
E = Dk/N; Q = Σ(O − E)²/E; p = (1 + #{Qnull ≥ Q})/(R + 1); padj = min(1, 3p)
Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?
Knowing the generator and detecting it from a short record are different things. A quiet test cannot certify fairness.