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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
LotteryOracle · F-45
Compare the modeled preference for 1–31 in the earlier and later halves of the latest complete records, and below versus at or above their median jackpot.
Popularity changes how much a win is shared, never whether it happens. These are estimates from prize tables, not records of individual choices.
Mega Millions · 5/56 + 1/46 era · Jun 2005 – Oct 2013 · main · 800 Draws · Canonical archive; verification varies
2006-02-21 — 2009-12-18 · 400 Draws
The fit did not pass validation on later draws, or reached a parameter bound. No estimate is published.
2009-12-22 — 2013-10-18 · 400 Draws
280 training draws · 120 later validation draws
2010-02-02 — 2013-10-18 · 190 Draws
At least 200 complete draws are needed in this group.
2010-02-12 — 2013-10-01 · 198 Draws
At least 200 complete draws are needed in this group.
Four fixed comparisons; intervals are approximate and widened for multiplicity. They omit model error and serial dependence. Jackpot associations are not causal effects.
Median advertised jackpot, in the game’s currency: 40,000,000
crowd-timeline-birthday-v1
The latest eligible records are split into two chronological halves and two groups separated by the median advertised jackpot. Every group needs at least 200 complete draws. A single 1–31 coefficient is fitted with the existing crowd model, using 70% for fitting and later draws for validation. The displayed intervals reuse quasi-Poisson errors on the log multiplier and widen them for four estimates. They remain approximate: model error, dependence and changing player composition are not captured. A bounded, unidentified or unvalidated estimate is withheld.
interval = exp(log(multiplier) ± Φ⁻¹(1 − 0.05/8) × SE/multiplier)
Compare the modeled preference for 1–31 in the earlier and later halves of the latest complete records, and below versus at or above their median jackpot.
Popularity changes how much a win is shared, never whether it happens. These are estimates from prize tables, not records of individual choices.