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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Déjà vu
Players avoid last week’s numbers because they feel spent, and treat a repeated draw as proof of tampering. Both instincts come from expecting the machine to remember what it did. It has no memory at all — and that single fact makes the first belief backwards and the second one arithmetic.
A number repeating from the last draw is the normal case, not a warning. A whole draw repeating is rare but not suspicious — and most apparent repeats are recording errors, not miracles.
The last fourteen draws
Lit numbers also appeared in the draw above. In a 3-from-26 game chance says 32% of draws will hold at least one number over — then switch to a shuffled history and try to tell the difference.
The most recent draws, oldest first. Lit numbers were also in the draw above.
4 of 13 of these draws repeated at least one number from the draw before it — 30.8% against the 31.9% chance predicts. Switch to a shuffled history and the behaviour does not change.
The machine has no memory. Repeats are normal, and most apparent ones are recording errors.
Every draw, against the model
1,767 consecutive pairs of 2by2 draws, beside what a machine with no memory would produce. The average number held over is exactly 3²/26 — 0.346 — and the data agrees to two decimal places.
numbers held over from the previous draw
The machine has no memory. Repeats are normal, and most apparent ones are recording errors.
The coincidence ladder
Nothing in that formula required the two draws to be consecutive, so the same distribution describes every pair of draws in the history — a decade apart just as well as a week. The top rung is the same draw, twice.
1,562,028 pairs of draws in this history, by how many numbers the two draws had in common.
| Numbers in common | Pairs of draws | Chance predicts | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1,070,674 | 1,063,981 | 1.01× |
| 1 | 450,580 | 455,992 | 0.99× |
| 2 | 40,176 | 41,454 | 0.97× |
| 3the same draw twice | 598 | 601 | 1.00× |
Every rung is the same hypergeometric formula, evaluated at a different overlap. The machine has no memory of how long ago a draw was, so the distribution that governs consecutive draws governs draws a decade apart just as well — including the top rung, where the two draws are identical.
The machine has no memory. Repeats are normal, and most apparent ones are recording errors.
Has it ever happened?
The instinct is to reach for 1 in 2,600 and conclude it could not have. That is the answer to a different question — whether the next draw matches one you name. Drag the history length and watch the real question behave completely differently.
The machine has no memory. Repeats are normal, and most apparent ones are recording errors.
The register
Every combination this game has produced more than once — and a verdict on each. The verdicts exist because the first version of this scan found seven times more repeats than chance allows, and almost all of the excess was bad data rather than remarkable luck.
2016-11-16 2019-01-302.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-11-17 2021-07-194.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-11-22 2021-11-265.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-11-24 2019-04-282.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-11-28 2019-02-222.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-12-02 2017-10-13315 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-12-06 2019-10-062.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-12-07 2022-05-265.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-12-10 2020-01-303.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-12-12 2020-05-283.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-12-17 2022-06-225.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2016-12-23 2020-07-293.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-02 2019-04-112.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-04 2021-02-054.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-06 2019-04-042.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-07 2022-07-215.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-08 2021-01-214.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-09 2021-05-174.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-13 2020-10-293.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-17 2021-05-294.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-22 2017-10-19270 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-25 2017-02-039 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-01-29 2017-07-21173 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-01 2019-11-222.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-04 2019-12-202.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-09 2020-06-153.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-12 2022-03-315.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-14 2021-04-094.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-17 2021-09-094.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-20 2022-08-165.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-23 2019-01-311.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-24 2020-04-273.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-25 2020-06-073.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-26 2017-09-17203 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-27 2022-01-284.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-02-28 2019-06-132.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-01 2019-12-242.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-04 2019-10-282.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-05 2019-11-252.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-06 2021-08-314.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-07 2020-01-192.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-08 2017-06-27111 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-10 2021-01-143.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-17 2020-06-043.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-18 2019-02-181.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-19 2019-02-011.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-22 2019-06-222.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-24 2020-07-013.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-25 2019-05-302.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-29 2021-05-254.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-03-31 2020-07-183.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-01 2017-04-021 days apart
Only 1 day apart. Genuine repeats are drawn from every pair of draws in the history, so nearly all of them are years apart; this pattern is the signature of a re-posted result.
2017-04-02 2020-09-043.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-03 2017-04-041 days apart
Only 1 day apart. Genuine repeats are drawn from every pair of draws in the history, so nearly all of them are years apart; this pattern is the signature of a re-posted result.
2017-04-05 2017-04-061 days apart
Only 1 day apart. Genuine repeats are drawn from every pair of draws in the history, so nearly all of them are years apart; this pattern is the signature of a re-posted result.
2017-04-07 2019-01-201.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-08 2019-01-151.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-09 2019-03-292.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-10 2019-07-092.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-11 2019-12-082.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-15 2020-05-063.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-16 2019-05-212.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-19 2019-02-131.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-20 2021-11-064.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-21 2022-03-234.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-22 2021-04-234.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-24 2017-09-11140 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-04-25 2019-06-012.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-05 2020-05-123.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-06 2021-11-044.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-08 2020-06-013.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-09 2019-08-132.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-11 2019-12-262.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-14 2019-12-282.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-16 2020-09-073.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-21 2019-01-171.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-23 2021-07-144.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-25 2020-10-043.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-30 2021-06-134.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-05-31 2017-08-2990 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-02 2019-04-031.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-08 2021-10-294.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-10 2020-04-032.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-12 2021-08-144.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-13 2020-08-063.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-16 2021-01-313.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-17 2019-03-061.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-25 2017-09-2592 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-27 2021-02-243.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-06-28 2022-07-155.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-01 2019-11-232.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-02 2017-11-17138 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-03 2020-06-092.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-05 2019-12-232.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-09 2021-06-113.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-19 2019-03-181.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-21 2020-07-283.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-22 2019-02-231.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-24 2021-10-214.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-25 2021-11-114.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-07-26 2020-12-143.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-08-03 2020-10-193.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-08-09 2021-07-123.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-08-10 2017-12-01113 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-08-12 2019-10-262.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-08-27 2022-05-304.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-08-28 2021-10-034.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-08-29 2017-11-1477 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-08-31 2019-11-202.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-02 2019-07-041.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-03 2020-11-053.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-04 2019-08-202.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-05 2019-12-212.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-06 2021-10-064.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-07 2021-06-193.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-11 2019-09-262.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-12 2021-09-184.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-13 2019-02-051.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-15 2019-03-141.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-16 2022-01-294.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-17 2021-08-073.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-19 2021-06-243.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-26 2017-12-2792 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-27 2020-09-163.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-29 2021-02-273.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-09-30 2019-07-061.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-03 2020-03-262.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-04 2022-05-194.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-06 2021-10-174.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-07 2020-02-152.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-14 2020-07-172.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-16 2019-05-041.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-17 2019-01-221.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-20 2020-01-062.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-22 2020-12-043.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-24 2022-03-224.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-25 2022-08-174.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-10-30 2019-01-231.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-07 2021-03-073.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-09 2017-12-0425 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-12 2019-11-062.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-17 2020-12-163.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-19 2019-03-071.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-20 2022-06-044.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-22 2019-10-241.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-24 2019-10-041.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-27 2020-11-253.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-28 2019-10-311.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-29 2021-12-084.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-11-30 2020-06-232.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-03 2019-10-221.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-06 2020-07-062.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-07 2022-04-054.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-09 2021-08-263.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-12 2021-11-183.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-14 2019-05-061.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-18 2020-11-102.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-21 2019-12-102.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-27 2020-11-202.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-29 2019-03-101.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2017-12-30 2021-07-113.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-03 2020-02-01394 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-08 2019-01-2416 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-09 2022-04-133.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-13 2021-01-182.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-15 2019-01-2813 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-16 2019-01-215 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-19 2022-01-203.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-22 2020-06-281.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-24 2021-12-262.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-26 2020-05-171.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-01-31 2019-04-1776 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-01 2019-06-23142 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-02 2021-04-012.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-03 2021-04-222.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-05 2021-12-012.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-08 2019-04-1667 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-09 2022-05-123.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-10 2020-04-121.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-18 2020-10-201.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-19 2021-03-012.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-20 2021-06-092.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-22 2022-05-023.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-27 2021-03-252.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-02-28 2020-11-181.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-01 2020-07-111.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-02 2019-05-2079 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-03 2020-09-171.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-05 2022-05-063.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-06 2020-11-271.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-08 2020-05-271.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-11 2019-07-13124 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-14 2020-04-06389 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-15 2022-05-163.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-16 2019-12-03262 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-18 2022-08-103.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-20 2022-07-263.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-22 2021-08-112.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-23 2019-05-1452 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-25 2020-03-04345 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-03-31 2020-10-081.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-01 2022-04-093.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-03 2020-07-081.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-07 2020-08-241.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-10 2021-06-072.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-11 2020-09-131.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-12 2022-03-162.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-13 2021-10-282.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-15 2020-08-271.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-22 2020-03-20333 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-25 2020-01-03253 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-27 2019-07-1074 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-04-30 2020-11-231.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-01 2020-02-22297 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-03 2019-12-30241 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-04 2020-11-111.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-06 2022-09-143.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-09 2020-11-141.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-13 2020-07-141.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-15 2022-04-042.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-20 2019-06-0718 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-24 2021-10-152.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-05-30 2020-07-221.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-06-07 2020-06-08367 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-06-11 2020-04-08302 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-06-15 2020-09-121.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-06-21 2019-09-0576 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-06-23 2020-08-141.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-02 2020-02-09222 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-04 2021-04-271.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-12 2020-11-241.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-13 2019-10-30109 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-14 2021-05-041.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-21 2020-10-071.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-22 2020-04-22275 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-24 2021-03-041.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-27 2019-10-1782 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-07-30 2020-03-23237 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-08-02 2020-03-03214 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-08-04 2020-07-25356 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-08-11 2022-08-283.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-08-12 2022-05-182.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-08-16 2020-07-15334 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-08-22 2022-08-012.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-08-28 2019-11-0569 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-08-30 2019-09-1415 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-09-04 2021-08-011.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-09-07 2021-02-041.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-09-12 2020-05-22253 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-09-13 2019-11-2977 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-09-15 2020-10-02383 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-09-19 2022-03-082.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-09-22 2021-02-151.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-09-26 2021-08-091.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-09-29 2021-11-022.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-01 2021-02-161.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-08 2022-03-252.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-12 2020-04-20191 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-13 2020-02-08118 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-14 2022-02-232.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-15 2021-05-191.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-17 2020-12-201.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-22 2021-05-281.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-23 2022-04-192.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-26 2021-09-031.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-27 2022-02-152.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-28 2020-12-241.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-10-31 2019-11-1717 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-11-08 2020-06-29234 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-11-09 2020-03-01113 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-11-10 2020-02-18100 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-11-14 2019-12-1531 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-11-17 2020-03-28132 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-11-19 2020-01-2971 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-11-25 2020-10-12322 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-11-27 2020-04-21146 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-11-30 2020-06-06189 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-07 2022-09-102.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-08 2021-06-231.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-12 2020-10-24317 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-14 2020-05-19157 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-17 2020-11-03322 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-18 2020-11-13331 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-20 2020-10-05290 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-21 2021-08-061.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-26 2020-11-08318 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-27 2022-07-032.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-29 2022-09-132.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2019-12-31 2021-07-171.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-01-01 2021-05-311.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-01-10 2020-10-25289 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-01-13 2020-08-31231 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-01-22 2022-06-122.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-01-23 2021-07-041.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-01-26 2022-03-182.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-01-27 2022-04-252.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-02-02 2021-11-291.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-02-03 2021-01-05337 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-02-10 2021-10-051.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-02-12 2022-08-292.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-02-15 2022-02-122.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-02-16 2021-05-231.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-02-18 2021-11-131.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-02-25 2021-09-161.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-02-26 2020-08-13169 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-03-02 2021-11-211.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-03-03 2022-07-052.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-03-19 2020-04-0214 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-03-21 2022-09-022.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-03-23 2021-12-091.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-03-24 2021-01-27309 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-03-31 2022-03-131.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-03 2021-04-25387 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-06 2021-03-26354 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-08 2022-08-252.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-09 2021-12-171.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-11 2021-08-051.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-13 2020-09-08148 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-14 2021-06-041.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-15 2021-04-04354 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-19 2022-05-032.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-24 2020-08-21119 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-25 2021-03-05314 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-04-28 2020-05-1416 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-05-12 2020-10-13154 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-05-13 2022-02-081.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-05-14 2021-10-221.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-05-15 2021-12-211.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-05-23 2021-02-13266 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-05-27 2020-12-10197 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-05-29 2022-09-082.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-05-31 2021-11-171.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-01 2020-12-02184 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-03 2021-04-10311 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-06 2020-07-0529 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-07 2020-10-14129 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-12 2021-01-16218 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-16 2021-07-09388 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-17 2020-08-0549 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-18 2021-06-18365 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-21 2021-11-201.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-22 2020-07-2331 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-06-27 2020-09-1479 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-07-05 2021-12-041.4 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-07-08 2021-09-281.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-07-16 2020-09-1157 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-07-17 2020-08-0115 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-07-18 2022-01-161.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-07-21 2021-02-07201 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-07-26 2021-05-06284 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-07-28 2021-08-25393 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-08-02 2022-06-011.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-08-08 2021-09-191.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-08-14 2022-07-282.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-08-17 2022-06-181.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-08-19 2022-06-101.8 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-08-31 2020-11-1778 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-09-02 2022-01-061.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-09-04 2020-10-2854 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-09-05 2022-09-012.0 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-09-12 2020-09-2614 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-09-22 2021-09-26369 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-09-26 2022-05-111.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-09-29 2022-01-091.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-10-04 2021-07-23292 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-10-05 2022-01-031.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-10-08 2022-02-051.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-10-14 2021-06-12241 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-10-20 2021-02-26129 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-10-24 2022-02-221.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-10-27 2021-04-18173 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-11-04 2022-09-151.9 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-11-06 2021-06-08214 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-11-15 2021-03-03108 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-11-19 2022-05-291.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-11-22 2022-02-021.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-11-27 2021-08-30276 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-11-28 2021-07-20234 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-12-02 2021-10-11313 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-12-05 2021-03-1499 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-12-07 2020-12-1811 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-12-17 2022-04-071.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-12-29 2022-09-061.7 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2020-12-31 2021-05-20140 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-02 2022-07-271.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-05 2021-05-05120 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-06 2022-02-261.1 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-08 2021-09-23258 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-11 2022-07-311.5 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-12 2021-03-2168 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-15 2021-03-1963 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-16 2022-02-17397 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-17 2021-07-30194 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-18 2022-08-261.6 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-27 2021-04-3093 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-01-29 2021-09-11225 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-02-13 2022-05-231.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-02-15 2021-09-06203 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-02-24 2021-04-0338 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-02-25 2021-12-23301 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-02-26 2021-06-21115 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-03-07 2022-01-11310 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-03-24 2022-06-261.3 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-04-04 2021-11-19229 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-04-07 2021-04-2619 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-04-13 2022-04-24376 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-04-14 2021-06-1057 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-04-15 2021-05-0318 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-04-20 2022-01-23278 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-05-02 2021-05-1210 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-05-04 2021-10-18167 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-05-13 2022-01-14246 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-05-14 2021-06-2946 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-05-19 2021-11-09174 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-06-01 2021-09-0596 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-06-03 2021-09-0796 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-06-10 2022-03-05268 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-06-30 2022-09-171.2 years apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-07-07 2022-03-11247 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-07-13 2021-08-0321 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-07-24 2021-10-2694 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-08-01 2022-02-16199 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-08-13 2021-10-0452 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-08-14 2022-08-22373 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-08-21 2022-03-27218 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-08-25 2021-10-2460 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-08-27 2022-06-08285 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-09-03 2022-02-20170 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-09-13 2022-09-03355 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-09-14 2021-09-2713 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-09-15 2022-08-12331 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-09-20 2022-08-15329 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-10-01 2022-05-15226 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-10-03 2022-01-17106 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-10-08 2021-12-2982 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-10-09 2021-11-2749 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-10-11 2022-05-28229 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2021-10-20 2022-07-02255 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2022-04-15 2022-09-07145 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
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Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
2022-06-06 2022-08-0762 days apart
Separated by years, which is what a genuine repeat looks like.
The machine has no memory. Repeats are normal, and most apparent ones are recording errors.
Reading the main draw, 1,768 draws over 6 years. Carry-over is only meaningful within a single draw series — mixing a game’s sub-draws would make “the previous draw” mean the previous different game.
The two layers underneath
Everything on this page is the same formula asked three times.
Take a draw of numbers from a pool of . Now take another draw, made by a machine with no memory of the first. How many numbers do they share?
The second draw is a uniform -subset, and the first draw's numbers are a fixed target inside the pool. That is a hypergeometric setup — drawing without replacement from a population split into "was in the last draw" and "wasn't":
The mean simplifies to something worth remembering:
Each of your numbers has probability of being among the next draw's , and expectation adds regardless of the dependence between them. For a 6/49 that is numbers carried over per draw.
The quantity players actually care about is , and it is the complement of a single term:
For a 6/49: .
More often than not, a 6/49 draw repeats a number from the draw before it. For a 7-from-52 game it is about 66%; for a 5-from-69 game, where the pool is sparse relative to the pick, it drops to 32%. The belief that a number is "used up" for a while has the arithmetic exactly inverted, and the strength of the effect is a property of the format rather than of the balls.
Nothing in that derivation used the fact that the two draws were consecutive. The machine has no memory of a week ago and none of a decade ago either, so the same distribution describes every pair of draws in the history.
With draws there are pairs, and the expected number sharing exactly numbers is . That is the ladder on this page — and its top rung, , is two draws that were completely identical.
Here is where intuition fails hardest.
Asked whether a lottery has ever repeated a draw, people reach for — one in 13,983,816 for a 6/49 — and conclude it could not have happened. But that is the answer to "will the next draw match this specific one?" The real question is whether any of the pairs match, and that count grows quadratically while the space stays fixed.
The expected number of repeats after draws is
and, treating them as approximately Poisson,
Even odds arrive when , which gives
For a 6/49 that is 4,404 draws — around forty years of twice-weekly play. Not the geological timescale the one-in-fourteen-million figure suggests. A game that has been running since the 1980s is not unlikely to have repeated itself; it is roughly a coin flip.
There is one more step, and this page learned it the hard way.
When you hunt for coincidences across many games at once, the expected count rises with every game you add — but so does the number of ways your data can be wrong. Scanning every lottery in this database for repeated draws returns about a third more than chance allows, and essentially none of the excess is remarkable: it is one physical draw recorded under two slot names, or a result posted to two consecutive dates.
The statistical lesson generalises well beyond lotteries. At the scale where coincidences become expected, data errors become expected faster, because they are not competing against a one-in-fourteen-million denominator. Any anomaly hunt that does not model its own error rate will find its bugs first and report them as discoveries.
On 6 September 2009 the Bulgarian national lottery drew 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42. Nobody won.
Four days later, on 10 September, the machine produced 4, 15, 23, 24, 35 and 42 again. This time eighteen people had the ticket.
The reaction was immediate and entirely predictable. The country's sports minister ordered an investigation; commentators explained that the odds were millions to one and that such a thing could not happen by accident. The investigation found no evidence of manipulation, and mathematicians pointed out what the arithmetic on this page says: across the thousands of draws held every week by hundreds of lotteries worldwide, a repeat somewhere is not merely possible but expected.
The Bulgarian case is famous because it was consecutive, which is genuinely rarer than a repeat separated by years. But the instinct it provoked — a coincidence this striking must have a cause — is the one this whole playground exists to examine.
Lottery players hold two convictions about repetition, and they contradict each other.
The first is that a number which came up last week is spent, and should be avoided. This is the gambler's fallacy in its most common costume, and the arithmetic is not close: in a 6/49 game, more than half of all draws repeat a number from the draw before. The "unlikely" thing is the one that happens most weeks.
The second is that a whole draw repeating would be proof of a rigged machine. That one is wrong in the other direction — a repeat is exactly what a fair machine produces once a game has run long enough, and the point at which it becomes likely is far nearer than anybody guesses.
Both beliefs come from the same place: a sense that the machine ought to remember what it has already done. It doesn't. It has no state at all between draws, which is what makes both the carry-over and the eventual repeat inevitable.
Building this page produced a small object lesson, and it seemed dishonest to leave it out.
The first version simply hunted for repeated draws across every game in this database. It found 10,400 of them, against roughly 1,455 that chance allows — a sevenfold excess that, taken at face value, would be the largest anomaly ever reported in a lottery dataset.
It was not an anomaly. It was three separate bugs.
Some games run several sub-draws under one name — South Africa's Lotto has a main draw, Plus 1, Plus 2 and a 5 Max — and the same physical result was filed under two of those slot names, so it looked like the machine had repeated itself within a second. Another game had a stretch in 2024 where results were posted to two consecutive dates, producing sixteen "one in 177,100" events in a single spring. And the search itself had a flaw: it packed each draw into a 64-bit mask, which silently dropped every number above 64, making Powerball's 65 to 69 invisible and manufacturing a clean, plausible, entirely fictional deviation.
Only the last of those was our own code, and it was the most dangerous, because it did not look like a bug. It looked like a finding.
Every claim on this site is an anomaly hunt of some kind: is this number hot, is this pair unusual, is this machine fair. The honest version of that work spends most of its effort on the boring question — could this be an artifact? — because at the scale where genuine coincidences start appearing, mistakes are appearing much faster.
The register on this page is what survived that question. It shows the repeats we believe, the number chance predicted, and the ones we threw out and why. It is a shorter list than the first version produced. It is also true.