In Lotto Max under the 7/49 + 1/49 · Sep 2009 – May 2019 rules — 503 draws, 7 from 1–49 (an earlier era).
59times drawn · chance expected 72 −1.64σ
10draws waiting · a wait this long: 25% for any number
8.3average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0
37longest completed wait · 20% chance of one at least that long
40 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 59 times in 503 draws against 71.9 expected, −1.64σ. Each draw is independent: after 10 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 12 times, counted separately.
40
Number 40, draw by draw
Drawn 59 times in 503 draws · average wait 8.3 draws · longest completed wait 37 · waiting 10 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 48 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 49. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 7/49 tonight whatever it did last week.